/r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 1464, Part 1 (Thread #1611)

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But in the worst worst-case scenario, we don’t have any control. Instead, the station will crack through the atmosphere. Sure, many pieces will likely end up in the ocean, but some might hit people, possibly in a town or a city. The station could break apart across thousands of miles and multiple continents. This would be exceedingly hard to anticipate. As NASA puts it, “Calculating the probability of this penetration cascading into loss of deorbit capability has a very large range of variables, making predictions ineffective.”

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"It won't happen in two years, but we might be talking about 10 years for this to happen, and that's still a short period of time," he says.

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